Systementwurf Probabilities

What is this?

This is a simulator for probabilities: how many failures occur in a whole fleet of aircraft within their service lifes? What does 1e-6 mean for the entire A320 fleet? Adjust the sliders for probabilities, mission time (remember: probabilities are allowed to scale linear with mission time), active time per day (i.e. how long is the aircraft in the air?) and after how many years the individual aircraft is retired.

By adjusting the sliders, the expected values will update. By clicking on manual simulation, a simulation will start that simulates every operating hour, if a failure occurs.

Click on any aircraft button to load the corresponding reference values. These values are taken from wikipedia and guestimates.

*365 days

$$N_{passive,expected}=$$in years

$$N_{passive,expected,perYear}=$$per year

$$N_{passive,expected} = P(Z_{fp}) / t_{mission} * N_{fleet} * t_{active,daily} * t_{service}$$

$$N_{ooc,expected}=$$in years

$$N_{ooc,expected,perYear}=$$per year

$$N_{ooc,expected} = P(Z_{fo}) / t_{mission} * N_{fleet} * t_{active,daily} * t_{service}$$

Simulation results